I find it interesting that anyone who understands how intelligence works can be discussing Benghazi, Libya and find anyone at fault a priori. I used to tutor statistics, let me break this down for you.
1. The United States of America collects information from all around the world, and collates it.
2. This process is not real time, there is a lag (we are only human) someone needs to type in the data, analyze the data, communicate the data, put it into another document.. do some math, dot the i’s and cross the t’s .. etc..
3. someone takes this information (lets say they put it on post-it notes) and sits down and assesses which ones are the most “credible”.
4. Each of these notes gets scored (lets for sake of argument say on a % scale 0-1).
5. The top (guess here again say ) 1000, rise to the top and are looked at.
6. Lets hope that if any of those items are bad that america tries to step in and avert them.
7. All of the other ones ‘slip thru the cracks’ as not being “actionable.”
8. As a result every once in a while something bad happens that we may have already heard about, but nobody in their right mind would transfer a seal team from say… sabotaging Iranian Nuclear installations, to the desert to overlook a group of rioting movie goers.
9. Time passes to the point that the “event” is eminent (meaning that the nearest flight time of a skilled team of military special forces has passed efficacy), where any additional information is too late.
10. Either something bad happens or something good happens.
Consider: You are walking down a dark alley. Your half way down the alley and you see a group of people turn into the alley walking in your direction.. they seem drunk. Do you;
A. Turn around because they are obviously a group of people who wish to do you harm.
B. Keep going but prepare yourself for what could happen.
C. Walk calmly, not knowing exactly what your getting yourself into.
If you were the friend of the person in the above alley scenario.. would you condemn them for making the wrong choice?
If you’ve never made a mistake, here is your first stone.